Arkansas City, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

230
FXUS63 KICT 250856
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
256 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread dense fog once again this morning, with more
  fog possible this evening into Friday morning.

- Unseasonably mild temperatures through Saturday, with record
  warm temperatures in jeopardy.

- Drastic cool down and gusty north winds likely late Saturday
  night through Monday, with single digit wind chills by late
  Sunday night.

- A chance for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms Saturday
  night into Sunday morning southeast Kansas, possibly ending as
  a brief light wintry mix Sunday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

FOG:

Unseasonably rich moisture coupled with light winds and diurnal
cooling is supporting widespread dense fog once again early this
morning, along and north of a weak surface trough. Expect this fog
to gradually dissipate from the south-southwest as the morning
progresses, as southwest low-level flow commences and warmer/drier
air advects in from the southwest. Per the latest short-term model
consensus, locations generally along/north of Highway 54/400 have
the greatest potential for widespread dense fog, with dense fog more
patchy generally south of this line. The dense fog advisory runs
through noon, although latest guidance supports fog hanging around
through early to mid afternoon generally along/north of Interstate
70, so day shift may need to extend the dense fog advisory into the
afternoon for locations such as Salina, Ellsworth, Russell, and
Lincoln.

Fog is expected once again this evening and tonight, but likely not
as expansive due to drier air advecting in and the surface trough
finally losing its identity. The latest guidance supports the
greatest potential for dense fog mainly northeast of a line
extending from Great Bend to Newton to Sedan to Coffeyville from
this evening through mid-late morning Friday. Will let the day shift
assess the potential for another dense fog advisory.

TEMPERATURES:

Similar to yesterday, daytime high temperatures will be tricky to
pin down today, as lingering low clouds/fog and limited mixing near
and north of the surface trough will have a significant impact on
warming potential. Consequently, thinking locations generally north
of Great Bend-Lyons-McPherson will only climb into the 50s today.
Meanwhile, southern and southeast Kansas will have the greatest
potential to reach the 60s-70s where mixing is better and fog/low
clouds burn off faster. The unseasonably mild temperatures in the
60s-70s look to persist areawide Friday and Saturday.

By late Saturday night, a strong cold front surging south through
the region will usher in stout/gusty north winds and much colder
temperatures. Sunday highs will likely be in the morning, with
falling temperatures into the 30s through the day. Stout/gusty north
winds will support wind chills in the single digits Sunday through
Monday morning. Monday highs will likely only be in the upper 20s
and 30s.

Model consensus supports a modest warm up into the 40s to low 50s
Tuesday and Wednesday.

PRECIPITATION:

There is a chance of showers and perhaps even a few thunderstorms
generally southeast of the KS Turnpike Saturday night through Sunday
morning, in response to the strong cold front blasting south through
Mid-America, and associated upper forcing traversing the region.
MUCAPE looks to be less than 500 J/kg, so any thunderstorm activity
should remain well below severe levels. By Sunday afternoon, the
last gasp of forcing my coincide with the strong cold air advection
to support a brief period of light wintry precipitation over
southeast Kansas, but any winter weather impacts look minor to nil
at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1048 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Dense fog and low ceilings will impact all sites overnight and
into the morning hours. LIFR conditions are currently being
seen for RSL and SLN. Conditions will deteriorate from north to
south over the next few hours with all sites seeing prevailing
LIFR conditions generally between 09-17Z. Low vis and cigs will
lift for south-central and southeastern Kansas sites around 18Z
with central Kansas sites improving to VFR conditions by 21Z.
Model guidance is indicating another round of fog/low cigs is
possible again for tomorrow night, but it`s too early to say
with confidence the magnitude and coverage of another event.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 252 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Record high temperatures in jeopardy through Saturday:

TODAY DECEMBER 25...

Site        Forecast High      Record High (Year)
Wichita          68                68 (2019)
Chanute          74                71 (1922)

FRIDAY DECEMBER 26...

Site        Forecast High      Record High (Year)
Wichita          70                69 (2021)
Salina           68                67 (2008)
Chanute          67                75 (2021)
Russell          70                72 (2021)

SATURDAY DECEMBER 27...

Site        Forecast High      Record High (Year)
Wichita          70                68 (1946)
Salina           68                68 (1928)
Chanute          73                74 (1946)
Russell          67                66 (1956)

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...AMD
CLIMATE...ADK